The best sources of data and analysis are from the Twitter feeds of Aaron Ginn and Alex Berenson. Aaron's early, excellent analysis of the Covid-19 outbreak, Evidence over Hysteria, was censored by Medium. This got an op-ed in the Wall St Journal . Read the article: the fact that it was censored says as much as the article itself. Alex Berenson worked as a reporter for the New York Times but left to pursue a successful career as a novelist. After becoming interested in Covid-19, he decided to write a book on it: Unreported Truths about Covid-19 and Lockdowns. Amazon censored the first installment until Elon Musk interceded - and it promptly became the #1 best selling book on the site.

EthicalSkeptic and Covid Tracking Project have great analysis and data.


There's no end of panic porn about Covid-19, and "Team Apocalpyse" (The Atlantic, CNN, New York Times, etc.) eagerly promotes every possible scary trope. For all the following actual observations, those outlets publish hysterical (and sometimes false) reports of the extremely rare counterexamples:

People are terrified. The big question is: How can we make our way out of this and restore normal life and prosperity? Scott Atlas is trying to communicate the risks of virus vs costs of our response - and getting vicious vilification for it. But can we suspend life for another year or two or five until we have a vaccine? What if there are adverse events following vaccination?

State governors have police power. They are the ones who commanded the lockdowns and masking and social distancing rules. They are responsible for the great blunders - Andrew Cuomo's nursing home orders alone might have killed 10,000 people.

Somehow this has all gone political - but Trump, for all his moronic tweeting, hasn't done a particularly bad job - because there's really nothing a president can do. Closing borders didn't make any difference - by the time it happened the virus was already endemic everywhere - but while it was opposed at the time by Democrats it's now generally agreed to have been a reasonable measure. For all the anti-Trump rhetoric, we never needed ventilators or emergency overflow hospitals. Do people believe that Biden/Harris will somehow make life all good again? Is the destruction of half the nation's restaurants and a third of all small businesses, and the permanent loss of 20 million jobs just a tactic in a presidential election year?

Further readings on Covid-19:

Data Sources:

CDC Dashboard

Santa Clara County Dashboard

San Mateo County Dashboard
  San Mateo County reports on just 390 beds, but the county has seven hospitals:
Hospital Beds
Kaiser Redwood City 149
Kaiser South SF 120
Mills Peninsula 301
Sequoia Hospital 208
Seton Medical Center 434
Seton Coastside 121
San Mateo Medical Center 448
TOTAL 1,763


Daily Update of COVID-19 Costs

One America News Network

UCSF news

Ulf Martin


Don Boudreaux

Michael Senger on harms of lockdown, "the greatest crime of the 21st century."

The Long-Term Impact of the Covid-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates

Why the hysteria?

500,000 fewer U.S. births?

Nature: No asymptomatic transmission!

@BallouxFrancois: Covid-19 response is a policy question, not science

Delaying herd immunity is costing lives - spiked

National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening | American Enterprise Institute - AEI

COVID-19 and the Path to Immunity | JAMA

Anders Tegnell and the Swedish Covid experiment

Sweden vs EU


Covid-19 T Cell (ELISPOT) test kits

Commercially Available Covid-19 test kids

EUAs for serology tests | FDA

At-home test for novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

Coronavirus Test Tracker: Commercially Available COVID-19 Diagnostic Tests | 360Dx

COVID-19 T cell assay kits

EUA Authorized Serology Test Performance | FDA

RP5800950 Premier Biotech INGM-MC42S

Balloux: Covid-19 Response is Policy, not Science

Aaron Ginn: Evidence Over Hysteria

Why Conservatives and Liberals Are Not Experiencing the Same Pandemic

They Blinded Us from Science

AEI: Roadmap to Reopening

Jay Bhattacharya - Questioning Conventional Wisdom

Swiss Propaganda Research


Indoor risk calculator

Expert says coronavirus 'as dangerous as having a bath' after calculating risk of dying - Mirror Online

Z-Scores Are Misleading & Create Panic: Or, How Not To Compare Pandemics - William M. Briggs

Our Dangerous Illusions About Risk

Life Has Become the Avoidance of Death

Fear Is a Viral Monster

Covid-19 Mortality, Factor Analysis


Covid-19 circulating prior to January 2020 Oxford Clinical Infectious Diseases

Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States, Nature, Sept 9, 2020

Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — USA, Feb–Sept 2020 Clinical Infectious Diseases, IDSA

COVID-19 was circulating in the US in December 2019 Clinical Infectious Diseases, IDSA

IFR Random-Sample Prevalence Annals of Internal Medicine, superior, peer-reviewed journal

Iceland: Large-scale testing

High prevalence of Covid-19 among pregnant women in NYC

Holman Jenkins: Should You Get Covid-19?

Pandemic Costs

How Not to Compare Pandemics

Are we underestimating seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2? British Medical Journal

Immunity and Communicability:

Herd Immunity Threadhold 10-20%

Indoor Transmission of Covid-19

Pre-Existing Covid-19 immunity

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions:

NBER: Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19 (National Bureau of Economic Research - serious, excellent work)


A Country Level Analysis… EClinicalMedical/The Lancet

The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns Wall Street Journal

Shutdown Began as a High School Science Project

Airline Passenger Risk


Danmask-19: Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings

CDC Scientific Brief

NEJM: We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection.

Rapid systematic review: efficacy of face masks and respirators

Twitter thread on DANMASK-19 status

Justin Hart's master thread on masks

A few charts

Masking Lack of Evidence with Politics | Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Oxford

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings | CDC: Emerging Infectious Diseases

Masks for All Not Based on Sound Data | University of Minnesota

Randomised Trial of Cloth Masks | BMJ

Denmark Mask Trial

WHO face mask recommendations

Systematic Review of Face Masks | NIH

Uncompromised Science on Masks

Timing of Masks and Outbreaks, by Country


Flu vaccines don't reduce hospitalization or mortality

AstraZeneca Phase 3 trial due to end October 5, 2022

Moderna Phase 3 trial due to end October 27, 2022

Virus Gonna Virus:

Common Cold at Antarctic Base | NIH

Ushuaia fishing boat infections

John Ioannidis:

Lockdown effects on Covid-19 spread

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19: A Tale of Three Models

Inferred IFR, October 2020

The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data | medRxiv

Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University | Interview - YouTube

Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr. John Ioannidis Update: 4.17.20 | Episode 4 - YouTube

Global perspective of COVID-19 epidemiology for a full-cycle pandemic (October 2020)

A Fiasco in the Making - March 17, 2020

John Ioannidis - Perspectives - 2020-04-17

Covid-19 Infection Fatality Rate

Perspectives - 2020-03-26

Covid-19 Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Wall St Journal profile

The Harms of Exaggerated Information and Non-Evidence-Based Measures

Ioannidis Explains His Views

Ioannidis Debates Taleb

And a few from Aaron Ginn and Alex Berenson:








Why Is All Covid-19 News Bad News? NBER

Kansas mask charts

Nashville bars

He died in a motorcycle accident.

Joe Biden's bubble

Vladimir Putin's bubble

Misguided Shutdown Policy Began as High School Science Project

On My Mind: They Blinded Us From Science

The origin story of COVID-19 lockdowns - The Mass Illusion